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Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors — K League 1 2026

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
3/17/2024K League 1K League 1 · Round 3Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC31%
×Draw27%
Jeonbuk Motors42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.13
Jeonbuk Motors
1.37

Jeonbuk Motors creates 21% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 154 away

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.32
Jeonbuk Motors
1.55

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.19
Jeonbuk Motors
0.94

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw
58%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Jeonbuk Motors
73%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
69%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
12%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
68%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
31%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
11%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
75%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
40%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
42%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 119 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.94 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.32 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.55 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
31%
level
27%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
42%

Jeonbuk Motors at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 in K League 1 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Gimcheon Stadium in Gimcheon.