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Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC — K League 1 2026

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Preview
10:00
Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC
9/6/2026K League 1K League 1 · Round 27Gimcheon Stadium
Big match
44%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
model favours
44%27%29%

Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC44%
×Draw27%
Gwangju FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.40
Gwangju FC
1.08

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 97 away

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.32
Gwangju FC
0.98

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.19
Gwangju FC
1.47

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

Gwangju FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw
71%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gwangju FC
73%
Draw or Gwangju FC
56%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
21%
Gwangju FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
75%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
41%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
17%
Gwangju FC 1+ goals
66%
Gwangju FC 2+ goals
29%
Gwangju FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
60%
Gwangju FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 119 matches

Gwangju FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.47 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.32 + Gwangju FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gwangju FC attack 0.98 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
44%
level
27%
Gwangju FC scores more
29%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (2.0 vs 2.5 expected)
  • Gwangju FC outscore their xG (0.9 vs 0.3 expected)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Attack-heavy
Gwangju FC
Balanced
57%Possession46%
85%Pass accuracy81%
14.2Shots9.9
2.54xGBiggest gap0.35
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Gimcheon Sangmu FCGwangju FC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Avg goals: 1.5BTTS: 30%
1–11–10–10–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FC
DDLD
FC
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Gwangju FC

September 6, 2026: Gimcheon Sangmu FC take on Gwangju FC in K League 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Gwangju FC at Gimcheon Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.