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Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul — K League 1 2026

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Preview
10:30
FC Seoul
FC Seoul
8/8/2026K League 1K League 1 · Round 22Gimcheon Stadium
Big match
39%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
model favours
39%27%34%

Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC39%
×Draw27%
FC Seoul34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.31
FC Seoul
1.19

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 156 away

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.32
FC Seoul
1.20

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.19
FC Seoul
1.29

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par
FC Seoul+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

FC Seoul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw
66%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC or FC Seoul
73%
Draw or FC Seoul
61%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
18%
FC Seoul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
73%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
38%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
14%
FC Seoul 1+ goals
70%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
33%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
54%
FC Seoul (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 119 matches

FC Seoul away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.29 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.32 + FC Seoul defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Seoul attack 1.20 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
39%
level
27%
FC Seoul scores more
34%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit 11, FC Seoul 1 in the table
  • 33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (2.0 vs 2.5 expected)
  • FC Seoul outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Attack-heavy
FC Seoul
Balanced
57%Possession51%
85%Pass accuracy80%
14.2Shots11.2
2.54xGBiggest gap1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Gimcheon Sangmu FCFC Seoul

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 60%
3–23–16–20–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FC
DDLD
Seoul
DWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimcheon Sangmu FC face FC Seoul (K League 1)

K League 1 returns with Gimcheon Sangmu FC hosting FC Seoul. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC host FC Seoul at Gimcheon Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.