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Gillingham vs York — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
14:00
York
York
4/24/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 43Priestfield Stadium
40%
Gillingham
model favours
40%28%32%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gillingham40%
×Draw28%
York32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.26
York
1.11

Gillingham creates 14% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.12
York
1.13

allows per match

Gillingham
1.09
York
1.40

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
68%
Gillingham or York
72%
Draw or York
60%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
18%
York wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
72%
Gillingham 2+ goals
36%
Gillingham 3+ goals
13%
York 1+ goals
67%
York 2+ goals
30%
York 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
55%
York (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.12 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

York attack 1.13 + Gillingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gillingham scores more
40%
level
28%
York scores more
32%

Gillingham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • Gillingham and York have never met before
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham face York (League Two)

League Two returns with Gillingham hosting York. Match starts April 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gillingham host York at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.