Gillingham 2–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Morecambe

V. Oliver 79' (pen)

M. Carayol 4'

C. Stockton 25'

8/21/2021

League One · Round 4Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gillingham49%

×Draw24%

Morecambe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.19

Gillingham

1.68

Morecambe

1.19

Gillingham creates 41% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 46 away

1.19

creates per match

0.89

1.48

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

73%

Gillingham or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

51%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

26%

Morecambe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

81%

Gillingham 2+ goals

50%

Gillingham 3+ goals

24%

Morecambe 1+ goals

70%

Morecambe 2+ goals

33%

Morecambe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

64%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.68

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gillingham scores more

49%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

27%

Gillingham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

D. Adshead

Gillingham · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

M. Carayol↳ B. Reeves

25'

C. Stockton↳ G. Leigh

46'

Ryan Cooney

46'

W. McDonald← J. McPake

51'

Samuel Lavelle

51'

D. Lloyd-McGoldrick← D. Adshead

63'

O. Lee← B. Reeves

69'

S. McLoughlin← C. Jones

79'

V. OliverPenalty

81'

C. Duffus← A. Phillips

90+1'

Vadaine Oliver

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamMorecambe

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots12

2Corners3

18Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target2

3Off Target5

4Blocked5

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

281Total Passes397

181Accurate Passes294

64%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0