Gillingham 1–0 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Harrogate Town

S. Williams 90+4'

9/9/2023

League Two · Round 7Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Gillingham48%

×Draw23%

Harrogate Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.40

Gillingham

1.86

Harrogate Town

1.40

Gillingham creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.38

creates per match

1.13

1.66

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Gillingham

1.38

Harrogate Town

1.13

allows per match

Gillingham

1.66

Harrogate Town

2.35

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less

Harrogate Town-0.46scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

71%

Gillingham or Harrogate Town

77%

Draw or Harrogate Town

52%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

27%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

84%

Gillingham 2+ goals

55%

Gillingham 3+ goals

28%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

75%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

41%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

62%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Harrogate Town defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.86

Harrogate Town attack 1.13 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gillingham scores more

48%

level

23%

Harrogate Town scores more

29%

Gillingham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

S. Ogie

Gillingham · D

8.0

Match Events

35'

Jonathan Williams

43'

L. Sutton← J. Falkingham

58'

J. Clarke← G. Lapslie

59'

61'

64'

66'

66'

67'

T. Nichols← J. Williams

79'

J. Sivi← S. Folarin

87'

J. Daly← M. Daly

90+8'

M. Ehmer← C. Mahoney

90+4'

S. Williams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamHarrogate

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots5

10Corners2

12Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots5

4On Target2

5Off Target2

6Blocked1

10Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

398Total Passes405

285Accurate Passes291

72%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0