Gillingham vs Exeter City — League Two 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 97+ matches
Gillingham36%
Exeter City36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 102 home / 97 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gillingham ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gillingham at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches
Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gillingham attack 1.12 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22
Exeter City attack 1.35 + Gillingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Gillingham at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
3 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Notts County
Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford City
Cambridge United
Grimsby
Chesterfield
Barnet
Swindon Town
Oldham
Crewe
Colchester
Walsall
Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town
Accrington STGillingham
Cheltenham
Shrewsbury
Newport County
Tranmere
Crawley Town
Harrogate Town
BarrowIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Gillingham host Exeter City on Friday, 1 January 2027 at 15:00. The match is part of the League Two 2018/2019 season.
Gillingham face Exeter City (League Two)
League Two returns with Gillingham hosting Exeter City. Match starts January 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Gillingham host Exeter City at Priestfield Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.