Gillingham vs Burton Albion — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 100+ matches
Gillingham40%
Burton Albion34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 100 home / 176 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gillingham ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches
Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gillingham attack 1.19 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39
Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Gillingham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Lincoln
Cardiff
Bolton
Stockport County
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield Town
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
WiganBurton Albion
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter City
Port Vale
Rotherham
NorthamptonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Gillingham host Burton Albion on Saturday, 11 August 2018 at 14:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
League One: Gillingham 3–1 Burton Albion
Gillingham beat Burton Albion 3-1 in League One on August 11, 2018.
Goals: L. Boyce (26'), T. Eaves (35', 77'), L. O'Neill (51').
The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham.