Gijang United vs Geumsan Insam

Gijang United

Preview

08:00

Geumsan Insam

9/13/2026

K4 League · Round 22

43%

Geumsan Insam

model favours

34%23%43%

1–1

likely score

63%

over 2.5 goals

64%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gijang United34%

×Draw23%

Geumsan Insam43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gijang UnitedExpected goals in this matchGeumsan Insam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.73

Gijang United

1.50

Geumsan Insam

1.73

Geumsan Insam creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

1.89

1.57

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Gijang United

1.57

Geumsan Insam

1.89

allows per match

Gijang United

1.57

Geumsan Insam

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gijang United+0.00on par

Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijang United ↓

Geumsan Insam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gijang United or draw

57%

Gijang United or Geumsan Insam

77%

Draw or Geumsan Insam

66%

Winning margin

Gijang United wins by 2+

16%

Geumsan Insam wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Gijang United 1+ goals

78%

Gijang United 2+ goals

44%

Gijang United 3+ goals

19%

Geumsan Insam 1+ goals

82%

Geumsan Insam 2+ goals

52%

Geumsan Insam 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Gijang United (draw refunded)

44%

Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijang United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijang United attack 1.57 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Gijang United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gijang United scores more

34%

level

23%

Geumsan Insam scores more

43%

Geumsan Insam at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

United

LLDWL

Insam

WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff