Gigant Saedinenie 2–1 Beroe II: Result & Stats

Gigant Saedinenie

FT

2 – 1

Beroe II

11/28/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie72%

×Draw17%

Beroe II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gigant SaedinenieExpected goals in this matchBeroe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.75

Gigant Saedinenie

2.30

Beroe II

0.75

Gigant Saedinenie creates 207% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 55 away

1.83

creates per match

0.76

0.74

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie

1.83

Beroe II

0.76

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie

0.74

Beroe II

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Beroe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw

89%

Gigant Saedinenie or Beroe II

83%

Draw or Beroe II

28%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

48%

Beroe II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

90%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

67%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

40%

Beroe II 1+ goals

53%

Beroe II 2+ goals

17%

Beroe II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

87%

Beroe II (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.30

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

72%

level

17%

Beroe II scores more

11%

Gigant Saedinenie at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 2–1 Beroe II

Gigant Saedinenie beat Beroe II 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Saedinenie.

Gigant Saedinenie vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 2–1 Beroe II