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GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Svenska Cupen 2019

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
3/1/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

GIF Sundsvall27%
×Draw23%
Varbergs BoIS FC51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.30
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.88

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.43
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.76

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
2.00
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.18

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
49%
GIF Sundsvall or Varbergs BoIS FC
77%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
73%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
11%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
73%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
37%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
14%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
85%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
56%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
34%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.43 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.76 + GIF Sundsvall defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
27%
level
23%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
51%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat GIF Sundsvall 4-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.