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GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
9/27/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 20NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

GIF Sundsvall44%
×Draw25%
Trelleborg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.59
Trelleborg
1.30

GIF Sundsvall creates 22% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 110 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.47
Trelleborg
1.15

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.45
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
69%
GIF Sundsvall or Trelleborg
75%
Draw or Trelleborg
56%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
22%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
80%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
47%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
21%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
73%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
37%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
59%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.45 · 83 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.47 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
44%
level
25%
Trelleborg scores more
31%

GIF Sundsvall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg

GIF Sundsvall beat Trelleborg 2-1 in Superettan on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.