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Gibraltar U17 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Gibraltar U17
Gibraltar U17
Preview
13:00
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
9/29/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1
Big match
80%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
model favours
8%12%80%

Top-of-the-table clash — Gibraltar U17 4 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3

brightest fact of this match

0–3
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gibraltar U178%
×Draw12%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U1780%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gibraltar U17
0.93
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
3.17

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 creates 241% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Gibraltar U17
0.00
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.00

allows per match

Gibraltar U17
5.33
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.86

finishing

Gibraltar U17+0.00on par
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar U17 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–29%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Gibraltar U17 or draw
20%
Gibraltar U17 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
88%
Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
92%

Winning margin

Gibraltar U17 wins by 2+
2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Gibraltar U17 1+ goals
61%
Gibraltar U17 2+ goals
24%
Gibraltar U17 3+ goals
7%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals
96%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals
82%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar U17 (draw refunded)
9%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar U17 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 5.33 · 6 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar U17 attack 0.00 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 1.00 + Gibraltar U17 defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Gibraltar U17 scores more
8%
level
12%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more
80%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U17
LLLLL
U17
LWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gibraltar U17 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 — Match Preview

Gibraltar U17 face Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 on September 29, 2026 in this UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.