Geylang International 2–2 Young Lions

Geylang International

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Young Lions

6/21/2022

Premier League · Round 6Town Square at Our Tampines Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Geylang International54%

×Draw20%

Young Lions26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geylang InternationalExpected goals in this matchYoung Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.57

Geylang International

2.33

Young Lions

1.57

Geylang International creates 48% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

1.94

creates per match

1.10

2.05

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Geylang International

1.94

Young Lions

1.10

allows per match

Geylang International

2.05

Young Lions

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geylang International+0.00on par

Young Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geylang International ↓

Young Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Geylang International or draw

74%

Geylang International or Young Lions

80%

Draw or Young Lions

46%

Winning margin

Geylang International wins by 2+

34%

Young Lions wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Geylang International 1+ goals

90%

Geylang International 2+ goals

67%

Geylang International 3+ goals

41%

Young Lions 1+ goals

79%

Young Lions 2+ goals

46%

Young Lions 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Geylang International (draw refunded)

68%

Young Lions (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geylang International at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

Young Lions away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.71 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geylang International attack 1.94 + Young Lions defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.33

Young Lions attack 1.10 + Geylang International defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Geylang International scores more

54%

level

20%

Young Lions scores more

26%

Geylang International at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Geylang International will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff