Geylang International 4–4 Tampines Rovers

Geylang International

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Tampines Rovers

R. Taniguchi 75'

N. Eunos 61'

T. Doi 34'

A. Adli 22' (OG)

T. Suparno 84', 82'

M. Zlatković 11'

B. Kopitović 7' (pen)

5/17/2024

Premier League · Round 2Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Geylang International32%

×Draw21%

Tampines Rovers47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geylang InternationalExpected goals in this matchTampines Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.13

Geylang International

1.73

Tampines Rovers

2.13

Tampines Rovers creates 23% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 85 away

1.94

creates per match

2.20

2.05

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Geylang International

1.94

Tampines Rovers

2.20

allows per match

Geylang International

2.05

Tampines Rovers

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geylang International+0.00on par

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geylang International ↓

Tampines Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Geylang International or draw

53%

Geylang International or Tampines Rovers

79%

Draw or Tampines Rovers

68%

Winning margin

Geylang International wins by 2+

16%

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Geylang International 1+ goals

82%

Geylang International 2+ goals

52%

Geylang International 3+ goals

25%

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

88%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

63%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Geylang International (draw refunded)

40%

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geylang International at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

Tampines Rovers away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geylang International attack 1.94 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tampines Rovers attack 2.20 + Geylang International defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Geylang International scores more

32%

level

21%

Tampines Rovers scores more

47%

Tampines Rovers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

B. KopitovićPenalty

11'

M. Zlatković

22'

A. AdliOwn goal

33'

S. KunoriGoal Disallowed - offside

34'

44'

45+5'

46'

52'

61'

62'

T. Suparno← J. Gallagher

70'

S. Yamashita

70'

A. Haikal← G. Kweh

70'

Y. Hanapi← B. Kopitović

75'

82'

83'

84'

90+3'

Z. Chua← R. Taniguchi

Geylang

Tampines

24

Buhari

33

⚽

Zlatković

5

🥅

▼

4

10

8

6

▼

Gallagher

30

Ramli

9

⚽

▼

Kopitović

11

▼

7

1

22

17

⚽

Eunos

18

Hariya

10

Bezecourt

11

▼

Aziz

8

Pereira

23

⚽

▼

Taniguchi

4

Tezuka

16

▼

Hussain

9

⚽

Doi

Manager: N. Ali

45+5'▲S. Tanaka←▼H. Aziz

83'▲N. Azman←▼I. Hussain

90+3'▲Z. Chua←▼R. Taniguchi

Geylang International substitutes

15Tanaka7Azman19Chua13Shahril14Syahir6Azman24Khairullah

Manager: G. Lee

46'▲I. Najeeb←▼A. Adli

62'▲T. Suparno←▼J. Gallagher

70'▲A. Haikal←▼G. Kweh

70'▲Y. Hanapi←▼B. Kopitović

Tampines Rovers substitutes

23Najeeb13Suparno17Haikal18Hanapi22Sazali31Barudin51Goh52Ekarunpong55Phang