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Geylang International vs DPMM FC Brunei — Premier League 2019

Geylang International
Geylang International
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
DPMM FC Brunei
DPMM FC Brunei
5/11/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Tampines Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Geylang International37%
×Draw22%
DPMM FC Brunei41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geylang International
1.78
DPMM FC Brunei
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 40 away

creates per match

Geylang International
1.94
DPMM FC Brunei
1.70

allows per match

Geylang International
2.05
DPMM FC Brunei
1.63

finishing

Geylang International+0.00on par
DPMM FC Brunei+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geylang International ↓

DPMM FC Brunei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Geylang International or draw
59%
Geylang International or DPMM FC Brunei
78%
Draw or DPMM FC Brunei
63%

Winning margin

Geylang International wins by 2+
19%
DPMM FC Brunei wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Geylang International 1+ goals
83%
Geylang International 2+ goals
53%
Geylang International 3+ goals
26%
DPMM FC Brunei 1+ goals
85%
DPMM FC Brunei 2+ goals
56%
DPMM FC Brunei 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Geylang International (draw refunded)
47%
DPMM FC Brunei (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geylang International at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

DPMM FC Brunei away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geylang International attack 1.94 + DPMM FC Brunei defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.78

DPMM FC Brunei attack 1.70 + Geylang International defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Geylang International scores more
37%
level
22%
DPMM FC Brunei scores more
41%

DPMM FC Brunei at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "DPMM FC Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Geylang International 1–3 DPMM FC Brunei

DPMM FC Brunei beat Geylang International 3-1 in Premier League on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Tampines Stadium (Singapore).