Geylang International 1–2 Albirex Niigata S

Geylang International

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Albirex Niigata S

5/23/2021

Premier League · Round 5Town Square at Our Tampines Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Geylang International32%

×Draw21%

Albirex Niigata S47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geylang InternationalExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata S

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.13

Geylang International

1.73

Albirex Niigata S

2.13

Albirex Niigata S creates 23% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

1.94

creates per match

2.20

2.05

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Geylang International

1.94

Albirex Niigata S

2.20

allows per match

Geylang International

2.05

Albirex Niigata S

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geylang International+0.00on par

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geylang International ↓

Albirex Niigata S →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Geylang International or draw

53%

Geylang International or Albirex Niigata S

79%

Draw or Albirex Niigata S

68%

Winning margin

Geylang International wins by 2+

16%

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Geylang International 1+ goals

82%

Geylang International 2+ goals

52%

Geylang International 3+ goals

25%

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals

88%

Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals

63%

Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Geylang International (draw refunded)

40%

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geylang International at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

Albirex Niigata S away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geylang International attack 1.94 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.73

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.20 + Geylang International defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Geylang International scores more

32%

level

21%

Albirex Niigata S scores more

47%

Albirex Niigata S at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff