Getafe 2–1 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Getafe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Levante

5/16/2021

La Liga · Round 37Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Getafe42%

×Draw28%

Levante30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GetafeExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.04

Getafe

1.29

Levante

1.04

Getafe creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

0.88

creates per match

1.18

0.91

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Getafe

0.88

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Getafe

0.91

Levante

1.71

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Getafe+0.12scores more

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Getafe or draw

70%

Getafe or Levante

72%

Draw or Levante

58%

Winning margin

Getafe wins by 2+

19%

Levante wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Getafe 1+ goals

72%

Getafe 2+ goals

37%

Getafe 3+ goals

14%

Levante 1+ goals

65%

Levante 2+ goals

28%

Levante 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Getafe (draw refunded)

58%

Levante (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.91 · 28 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe attack 0.88 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Levante attack 1.18 + Getafe defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Getafe scores more

42%

level

28%

Levante scores more

30%

Getafe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Getafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff