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Getafe vs Elche — La Liga 2026

Getafe
Getafe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Elche
Elche
E. Ünal 60'
Pere Milla 20'
3/21/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 28Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Getafe49%
×Draw27%
Elche24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe
1.40
Elche
0.88

Getafe creates 59% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 27 away

creates per match

Getafe
1.05
Elche
0.71

allows per match

Getafe
1.04
Elche
1.75

finishing

Getafe-0.10scores less
Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Getafe or draw
76%
Getafe or Elche
73%
Draw or Elche
51%

Winning margin

Getafe wins by 2+
24%
Elche wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Getafe 1+ goals
75%
Getafe 2+ goals
41%
Getafe 3+ goals
17%
Elche 1+ goals
59%
Elche 2+ goals
22%
Elche 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Getafe (draw refunded)
67%
Elche (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.04 · 39 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe attack 1.05 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.40

Elche attack 0.71 + Getafe defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Getafe scores more
49%
level
27%
Elche scores more
24%

Getafe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Getafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Edgar BadiaElcheElche · G
7.9

Match Events

20'
Pere Milla↳ Gonzalo Verdú
25'
Mauro Arambarri
37'
Iván Marcone
42'
Enes ÜnalGoal cancelled
45'
Soufiane Chakla
45'
Lucas Boyé
49'
Ángel← Nemanja Maksimović
55'
Dani Calvo
60'
E. Ünal↳ T. Kubo
63'
Pere Milla
64'
G. Carrillo← Pere Milla
66'
Guido Carrillo
68'
Fidel
72'
Portillo← T. Kubo
77'
P. Piatti← Tete Morente
82'
Ángel RodríguezGoal cancelled
83'
Gonzalo Verdú
86'
Darío Poveda← E. Ünal
86'
Timor← Carles Aleñá
90'
David Timor

Possession

48%Getafe

Shots

12Getafe

Pass accuracy

49%Getafe

Statistics

GetafeElche
Overview
48%Possession52%
12Total Shots6
4Corners8
17Fouls21
Shots
12Total Shots6
5On Target2
4Off Target3
3Blocked1
6Inside Box4
6Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
287Total Passes299
167Accurate Passes179
58%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls21
3Yellow Cards7
0Offsides2

La Liga: Getafe 1–1 Elche

Getafe and Elche drew 1-1 in La Liga on March 21, 2021.

Goals: Pere Milla (20'), E. Ünal (60').

Elche controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 12.

The match was played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in Getafe.