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Cucuta vs Cortulua — Primera B 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cortulua
Cortulua
8/29/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 22Estadio General Santander (Cúcuta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cucuta52%
×Draw25%
Cortulua23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.59
Cortulua
0.97

Cucuta creates 64% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 93 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.75
Cortulua
1.23

allows per match

Cucuta
0.71
Cortulua
1.43

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
77%
Cucuta or Cortulua
75%
Draw or Cortulua
48%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
27%
Cortulua wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
80%
Cucuta 2+ goals
47%
Cucuta 3+ goals
21%
Cortulua 1+ goals
62%
Cortulua 2+ goals
25%
Cortulua 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
69%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.71 · 93 matches

Cortulua away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.75 + Cortulua defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cortulua attack 1.23 + Cucuta defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cucuta scores more
52%
level
25%
Cortulua scores more
23%

Cucuta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Cortulua

Cucuta beat Cortulua 3-0 in Primera B on August 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander (Cúcuta).