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Germany vs Serbia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Germany
Germany
Preview
18:45
Serbia
Serbia
10/1/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 3
Big match
53%
Germany
model favours
53%24%23%

Germany have scored in 13 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Germany53%
×Draw24%
Serbia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany
1.72
Serbia
1.04

Germany creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Germany
2.18
Serbia
1.00

allows per match

Germany
1.09
Serbia
1.25

finishing

Germany+0.00on par
Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany ↓

Serbia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Germany or draw
77%
Germany or Serbia
76%
Draw or Serbia
47%

Winning margin

Germany wins by 2+
29%
Serbia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Germany 1+ goals
82%
Germany 2+ goals
51%
Germany 3+ goals
25%
Serbia 1+ goals
65%
Serbia 2+ goals
28%
Serbia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Germany (draw refunded)
70%
Serbia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany attack 2.18 + Serbia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.72

Serbia attack 1.00 + Germany defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Germany scores more
53%
level
24%
Serbia scores more
23%

Germany at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Germany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 69% of Germany’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Germany 1 vs Serbia 3
  • Germany win 70% of their home games
  • 33% of Germany’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Germany
Possession-dominant
Serbia
Balanced
64%PossessionBiggest gap48%
89%Pass accuracy80%
14.8Shots11.6
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GermanySerbia

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Germany
DLWWW
Serbia
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Germany vs Serbia — Match Preview

Germany face Serbia on October 1, 2026 in this UEFA Nations League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.