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Gerena vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Gerena
Gerena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Córdoba II
Córdoba II
10/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 7Estadio Leonardo Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Gerena46%
×Draw27%
Córdoba II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerena
1.43
Córdoba II
1.03

Gerena creates 39% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 110 away

creates per match

Gerena
1.51
Córdoba II
1.13

allows per match

Gerena
0.94
Córdoba II
1.34

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par
Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

Córdoba II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gerena or draw
73%
Gerena or Córdoba II
73%
Draw or Córdoba II
54%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+
22%
Córdoba II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals
76%
Gerena 2+ goals
42%
Gerena 3+ goals
17%
Córdoba II 1+ goals
64%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
28%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)
63%
Córdoba II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gerena scores more
46%
level
27%
Córdoba II scores more
27%

Gerena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gerena vs Córdoba II

Gerena beat Córdoba II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Leonardo Ramos in Sevilla.