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Gerena vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Gerena
Gerena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Conil
Conil
5/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio José Juan Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Gerena53%
×Draw26%
Conil21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerena
1.56
Conil
0.88

Gerena creates 77% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 111 away

creates per match

Gerena
1.51
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Gerena
0.94
Conil
1.60

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gerena or draw
79%
Gerena or Conil
74%
Draw or Conil
47%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+
28%
Conil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals
79%
Gerena 2+ goals
46%
Gerena 3+ goals
21%
Conil 1+ goals
59%
Conil 2+ goals
22%
Conil 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)
71%
Conil (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Conil attack 0.81 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gerena scores more
53%
level
26%
Conil scores more
21%

Gerena at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gerena vs Conil

Gerena beat Conil 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio José Juan Romero in Gerena.