Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 2–2 ASV 13: Result & Stats

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

FT

2 – 2

ASV 13

9/17/2021

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 5Sportplatz Gerasdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf54%

×Draw21%

ASV 1325%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gerasdorf StammersdorfExpected goals in this matchASV 13

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.47

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

2.21

ASV 13

1.47

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 59 away

1.43

creates per match

1.25

1.69

allows per match

2.98

creates per match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

1.43

ASV 13

1.25

allows per match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

1.69

ASV 13

2.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf+0.00on par

ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf ↓

ASV 13 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf or draw

75%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf or ASV 13

79%

Draw or ASV 13

46%

Winning margin

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf wins by 2+

33%

ASV 13 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 1+ goals

89%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 2+ goals

65%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 3+ goals

38%

ASV 13 1+ goals

77%

ASV 13 2+ goals

43%

ASV 13 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf (draw refunded)

68%

ASV 13 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.69 · 75 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf attack 1.43 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.21

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Gerasdorf Stammersdorf defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf scores more

54%

level

21%

ASV 13 scores more

25%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gerasdorf Stammersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff