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Georgia vs Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Georgia
Georgia
Preview
16:00
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
9/25/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 1
Big match
63%
Georgia
model favours
63%23%14%

Top-of-the-table clash — Georgia 3 vs Northern Ireland 1

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Georgia63%
×Draw23%
Northern Ireland14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia
1.69
Northern Ireland
0.63

Georgia creates 168% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Georgia
1.92
Northern Ireland
0.64

allows per match

Georgia
0.62
Northern Ireland
1.45

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Georgia or draw
86%
Georgia or Northern Ireland
77%
Draw or Northern Ireland
37%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+
36%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals
82%
Georgia 2+ goals
50%
Georgia 3+ goals
24%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
47%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
13%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)
82%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 1.92 + Northern Ireland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Northern Ireland attack 0.64 + Georgia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Georgia scores more
63%
level
23%
Northern Ireland scores more
14%

Georgia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Georgia and Northern Ireland have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Georgia
Possession-dominant
Northern Ireland
Balanced
58%Possession46%
86%Pass accuracy77%
14.2ShotsBiggest gap9.6
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GeorgiaNorthern Ireland

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Georgia
WDWDL
Ireland
LWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Georgia vs Northern Ireland — Match Preview

Georgia face Northern Ireland on September 25, 2026 in this UEFA Nations League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.