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Georgia U17 vs Kazakhstan U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Georgia U17
Georgia U17
Preview
14:00
Kazakhstan U17
Kazakhstan U17
11/17/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1
Big match
40%
Georgia U17
model favours
40%24%36%

Top-of-the-table clash — Georgia U17 3 vs Kazakhstan U17 4

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Georgia U1740%
×Draw24%
Kazakhstan U1736%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia U17
1.57
Kazakhstan U17
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Georgia U17
0.90
Kazakhstan U17
0.67

allows per match

Georgia U17
2.30
Kazakhstan U17
2.25

finishing

Georgia U17+0.00on par
Kazakhstan U17+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U17 ↓

Kazakhstan U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Georgia U17 or draw
64%
Georgia U17 or Kazakhstan U17
76%
Draw or Kazakhstan U17
60%

Winning margin

Georgia U17 wins by 2+
20%
Kazakhstan U17 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Georgia U17 1+ goals
79%
Georgia U17 2+ goals
46%
Georgia U17 3+ goals
21%
Kazakhstan U17 1+ goals
77%
Kazakhstan U17 2+ goals
43%
Kazakhstan U17 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Georgia U17 (draw refunded)
53%
Kazakhstan U17 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U17 at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Kazakhstan U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U17 attack 0.90 + Kazakhstan U17 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kazakhstan U17 attack 0.67 + Georgia U17 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Georgia U17 scores more
40%
level
24%
Kazakhstan U17 scores more
36%

Georgia U17 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Georgia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U17
DWWWD
U17
LLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Georgia U17 vs Kazakhstan U17 — Match Preview

Georgia U17 face Kazakhstan U17 on November 17, 2026 in this UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.