San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas — Major League Soccer 2012
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 29+ matches
San Jose Earthquakes45%
FC Dallas32%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Jose Earthquakes creates 20% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 29 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Jose Earthquakes ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Jose Earthquakes at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches
FC Dallas away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.89 + FC Dallas defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.77
FC Dallas attack 1.42 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
San Jose Earthquakes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "San Jose Earthquakes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Vancouver WhitecapsSan Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC
Real Salt LakeFC Dallas
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
Portland Timbers
San Diego
Colorado Rapids
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
DC United
Columbus Crew
CF Montreal
Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Jose Earthquakes host FC Dallas on Thursday, 19 July 2012 at 03:20. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2012/2013 season.
Major League Soccer: San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes beat FC Dallas 2-1 in Major League Soccer on July 19, 2012.
Goals: M. Chávez (12'), A. Gordon (45'), H. Pertúz (89').
The match was played at Buck Shaw Stadium.