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Gent W vs Genk W — Super League Women 2018

Gent W
Gent W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Genk W
Genk W
2/3/2024Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 16KAA Gent Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Gent W43%
×Draw23%
Genk W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent W
1.81
Genk W
1.61

Gent W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 104 away

creates per match

Gent W
1.75
Genk W
1.64

allows per match

Gent W
1.59
Genk W
1.87

finishing

Gent W+0.00on par
Genk W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent W ↓

Genk W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gent W or draw
65%
Gent W or Genk W
77%
Draw or Genk W
57%

Winning margin

Gent W wins by 2+
23%
Genk W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gent W 1+ goals
84%
Gent W 2+ goals
54%
Gent W 3+ goals
27%
Genk W 1+ goals
80%
Genk W 2+ goals
48%
Genk W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gent W (draw refunded)
55%
Genk W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.59 · 101 matches

Genk W away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.87 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent W attack 1.75 + Genk W defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.81

Genk W attack 1.64 + Gent W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gent W scores more
43%
level
23%
Genk W scores more
35%

Gent W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gent W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Gent W 0–1 Genk W

Genk W beat Gent W 1-0 in Super League Women on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at KAA Gent Arena in Gent.