Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gent vs Union St. Gilloise — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Gent
Gent
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
11/26/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 15Planet Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Gent32%
×Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
1.23
Union St. Gilloise
1.46

Union St. Gilloise creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gent
1.31
Union St. Gilloise
1.56

allows per match

Gent
1.36
Union St. Gilloise
1.14

finishing

Gent+0.07on par
Union St. Gilloise-0.29scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Union St. Gilloise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gent or draw
58%
Gent or Union St. Gilloise
74%
Draw or Union St. Gilloise
68%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
13%
Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
71%
Gent 2+ goals
35%
Gent 3+ goals
13%
Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
77%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
43%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
43%
Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 21 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.14 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.31 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.56 + Gent defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gent scores more
32%
level
26%
Union St. Gilloise scores more
42%

Union St. Gilloise at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gent vs Union St. Gilloise

Gent and Union St. Gilloise drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Planet Group Arena in Gent.