Gent 1–2 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Gent

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cercle Brugge

2/11/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 25Planet Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Gent38%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GentExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.41

Gent

1.42

Cercle Brugge

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.31

creates per match

1.45

1.36

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Gent

1.31

Cercle Brugge

1.45

allows per match

Gent

1.36

Cercle Brugge

1.53

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Gent+0.07on par

Cercle Brugge-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gent or draw

63%

Gent or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

62%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+

18%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals

76%

Gent 2+ goals

41%

Gent 3+ goals

17%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

76%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

41%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)

50%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 21 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.31 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Gent defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gent scores more

38%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

37%

Gent at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff