Gent 2–1 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Gent

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cercle Brugge

D. Lemajić 73'

J. De Sart 63'

Álex Millán 38' (pen)

9/26/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 9GHELAMCO-arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Gent36%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GentExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.45

Gent

1.40

Cercle Brugge

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

1.31

creates per match

1.53

1.36

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Gent

1.31

Cercle Brugge

1.53

allows per match

Gent

1.36

Cercle Brugge

1.49

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Gent+0.07on par

Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gent or draw

61%

Gent or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

64%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+

17%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals

75%

Gent 2+ goals

41%

Gent 3+ goals

17%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

77%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

42%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)

49%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 21 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.31 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + Gent defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gent scores more

36%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

39%

Cercle Brugge at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Chakvetadze

Gent · F

8.0

Match Events

21'

Christopher Operi

36'

Michael Ngadeu

38'

Álex MillánPenalty

41'

46'

51'

60'

60'

E. Owusu← S. Kums

60'

63'

64'

66'

71'

73'

D. Lemajić↳ G. Chakvetadze

78'

T. Tissoudali← G. Chakvetadze

78'

O. Deman← C. Vanhoutte

78'

R. Matondo← Álex Millán

78'

H. Van der Bruggen← F. Kanoute

86'

D. Hotič← E. Utkus

86'

D. Velkovski← A. Corryn

90+2'

Kévin Denkey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GentCercle

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots11

8Corners6

20Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots11

6On Target4

3Off Target4

2Blocked3

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

334Total Passes346

241Accurate Passes254

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls18

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Gent vs Cercle Brugge

Gent beat Cercle Brugge 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on September 26, 2021.

Goals: Álex Millán (38' pen), J. De Sart (63'), D. Lemajić (73').

Cercle Brugge controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at GHELAMCO-arena in Gent.

Gent vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Gent vs Cercle Brugge