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Gent vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Gent
Gent
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
3/5/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 28Ghelamco Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Gent43%
×Draw24%
Anderlecht32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
1.59
Anderlecht
1.35

Gent creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Gent
1.31
Anderlecht
1.33

allows per match

Gent
1.36
Anderlecht
1.87

finishing

Gent+0.07on par
Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gent or draw
68%
Gent or Anderlecht
76%
Draw or Anderlecht
57%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
22%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
80%
Gent 2+ goals
47%
Gent 3+ goals
21%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
74%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
39%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
57%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 21 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.31 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.59

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + Gent defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gent scores more
43%
level
24%
Anderlecht scores more
32%

Gent at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gent vs Anderlecht

Gent beat Anderlecht 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ghelamco Arena in Gent.