Genoa 1–3 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Genoa

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Udinese

Goran Pandev 22'

Kevin Lasagna 90'

Ken Sema 87'

Rodrigo De Paul 32'

11/3/2019

Serie A · Round 11Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genoa43%

×Draw27%

Udinese31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenoaExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.13

Genoa

1.38

Udinese

1.13

Genoa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

1.18

creates per match

1.05

1.21

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Genoa

1.18

Udinese

1.05

allows per match

Genoa

1.21

Udinese

1.57

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par

Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Genoa or draw

69%

Genoa or Udinese

73%

Draw or Udinese

57%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+

20%

Udinese wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals

75%

Genoa 2+ goals

40%

Genoa 3+ goals

16%

Udinese 1+ goals

68%

Udinese 2+ goals

31%

Udinese 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)

58%

Udinese (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Udinese attack 1.05 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Genoa scores more

43%

level

27%

Udinese scores more

31%

Genoa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Rodrigo De Paul

Udinese · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

Goran Pandev↳ Christian Kouamé

25'

Ken Sema

32'

Rodrigo De Paul↳ Stefano Okaka

48'

Bram Nuytinck

52'

Ivan Radovanović← Riccardo Saponara

64'

Antonio Barreca← Peter Ankersen

65'

Rodrigo Becão← Sebastien De Maio

70'

Antonio Sanabria← Cristian Romero

72'

Kevin Lasagna← Ilija Nestorovski

87'

Ken Sema↳ Stefano Okaka

89'

Łukasz Teodorczyk← Stefano Okaka

90'

Kevin Lasagna↳ Łukasz Teodorczyk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenoaUdinese

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots18

8Corners5

11Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots18

2On Target5

8Off Target9

6Blocked4

11Inside Box9

5Outside Box9

Passing

62%Possession38%

583Total Passes353

501Accurate Passes285

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Genoa vs Udinese

Udinese beat Genoa 3-1 in Serie A on November 3, 2019.

Goals: Goran Pandev (22'), Rodrigo De Paul (32'), Ken Sema (87'), Kevin Lasagna (90').

Genoa controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.

Genoa vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Genoa vs Udinese