Genoa 0–1 Torino: Result & Stats | Serie A

Genoa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torino

C. Ansaldi 58'

4/20/2019

Serie A · Round 33Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genoa39%

×Draw28%

Torino33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenoaExpected goals in this matchTorino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.11

Genoa

1.24

Torino

1.11

Genoa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

1.18

creates per match

1.01

1.21

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Genoa

1.18

Torino

1.01

allows per match

Genoa

1.21

Torino

1.30

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par

Torino-0.01on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Torino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Genoa or draw

67%

Genoa or Torino

72%

Draw or Torino

61%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+

17%

Torino wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals

71%

Genoa 2+ goals

35%

Genoa 3+ goals

13%

Torino 1+ goals

67%

Torino 2+ goals

30%

Torino 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)

54%

Torino (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

Torino away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Torino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Torino attack 1.01 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Genoa scores more

39%

level

28%

Torino scores more

33%

Genoa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

S. Sirigu

Torino · G

7.9

Match Events

9'

20'

33'

51'

53'

C. Kouamé← A. Sanabria

55'

Miguel Veloso

58'

C. Ansaldi↳ Álex Berenguer

65'

Daniel Bessa← Miguel Veloso

71'

V. Parigini← Álex Berenguer

78'

82'

84'

88'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenoaTorino

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots9

3Corners2

21Fouls24

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked2

9Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

355Total Passes402

241Accurate Passes300

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls24

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Genoa 0 – 1 Torino

Torino beat Genoa 1-0 in Serie A on April 20, 2019.

Goals: C. Ansaldi (58').

Torino controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Luigi Ferraris in Genova.

Genoa vs Torino — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Genoa 0 – 1 Torino