Genoa 2–1 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Genoa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sassuolo

Goran Pandev 86'

Domenico Criscito 29' (pen)

Pedro Obiang 33'

1/5/2020

Serie A · Round 18Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Genoa41%

×Draw26%

Sassuolo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenoaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.21

Genoa

1.40

Sassuolo

1.21

Genoa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

1.14

creates per match

1.23

1.18

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Genoa

1.14

Sassuolo

1.23

allows per match

Genoa

1.18

Sassuolo

1.66

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Genoa-0.02on par

Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Genoa or draw

68%

Genoa or Sassuolo

74%

Draw or Sassuolo

59%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+

19%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals

75%

Genoa 2+ goals

41%

Genoa 3+ goals

17%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

70%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

34%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)

56%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 26 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.66 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.14 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Genoa defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Genoa scores more

41%

level

26%

Sassuolo scores more

32%

Genoa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Domenico Criscito

Genoa · D

7.6

Match Events

19'

Alfred Duncan

20'

Domenico Criscito

23'

Manuel Locatelli

29'

Domenico CriscitoPenalty

33'

Pedro Obiang↳ Manuel Locatelli

36'

Stefano Sturaro

51'

Antonio Sanabria

53'

Filip Đuričić← Alfred Duncan

69'

Andrea Favilli← Antonio Sanabria

72'

Valon Behrami← Filip Jagiełło

76'

Filippo Romagna

77'

Domenico Berardi← Jérémie Boga

79'

Francesco Cassata← Stefano Sturaro

85'

86'

90'

90'

90'

90'

Giacomo Raspadori← Hamed Junior Traorè

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenoaSassuolo

Overview

36%Possession64%

15Total Shots11

1Corners6

24Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked5

12Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

325Total Passes560

239Accurate Passes481

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

24Fouls14

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Serie A: Genoa 2–1 Sassuolo

Genoa beat Sassuolo 2-1 in Serie A on January 5, 2020.

Goals: Domenico Criscito (29' pen), Pedro Obiang (33'), Goran Pandev (86').

Sassuolo controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.

Genoa vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Genoa 2–1 Sassuolo