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Genoa vs Sampdoria — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
K. Piątek 17' (pen)
F. Quagliarella 8'
11/25/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 13Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Genoa44%
×Draw25%
Sampdoria31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.50
Sampdoria
1.22

Genoa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 96 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
Sampdoria
1.11

allows per match

Genoa
1.32
Sampdoria
1.81

finishing

Genoa+0.00on par
Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
69%
Genoa or Sampdoria
75%
Draw or Sampdoria
56%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
21%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
78%
Genoa 2+ goals
44%
Genoa 3+ goals
19%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
70%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
34%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
59%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.32 · 124 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.81 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Sampdoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sampdoria attack 1.11 + Genoa defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Genoa scores more
44%
level
25%
Sampdoria scores more
31%

Genoa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
K. PiątekGenoaGenoa · F
8.3

Match Events

8'
F. Quagliarella↳ G. Ramírez
17'
Emil Audero
17'
K. PiątekPenalty
52'
G. Caprari← G. Defrel
71'
Pedro Pereira← D. Lazović
73'
Domenico Criscito
73'
R. Saponara← G. Ramírez
83'
Sandro← Daniel Bessa
85'
Sandro

Possession

41%Genoa

Shots

18Genoa

Pass accuracy

47%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaSampdoria
Overview
41%Possession59%
18Total Shots8
7Corners6
17Fouls16
Shots
18Total Shots8
4On Target2
9Off Target5
5Blocked1
10Inside Box4
8Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
321Total Passes498
232Accurate Passes409
72%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls16
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Genoa vs Sampdoria

Genoa and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 25, 2018.

Goals: F. Quagliarella (8'), K. Piątek (17' pen).

Sampdoria controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 18.

The match was played at Luigi Ferraris in Genova.