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Genoa vs Napoli — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Napoli
Napoli
E. Goldaniga 49'
H. Lozano 66'
D. Mertens 45+1'
7/8/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 31Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Genoa30%
×Draw28%
Napoli42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.03
Napoli
1.29

Napoli creates 25% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
Napoli
1.37

allows per match

Genoa
1.21
Napoli
0.89

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par
Napoli+0.07on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
58%
Genoa or Napoli
72%
Draw or Napoli
70%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
11%
Napoli wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
64%
Genoa 2+ goals
28%
Genoa 3+ goals
9%
Napoli 1+ goals
72%
Napoli 2+ goals
37%
Napoli 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
41%
Napoli (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.89 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Napoli defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Napoli attack 1.37 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Genoa scores more
30%
level
28%
Napoli scores more
42%

Napoli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Mattia PerinGenoaGenoa · G
8.2

Match Events

45+1'
D. Mertens↳ L. Insigne
49'
E. Goldaniga↳ L. Schone
64'
D. Mertens← A. Milik
64'
M. Politano← H. Lozano
64'
V. Behrami← L. Lerager
66'
H. Lozano↳ F. Ruiz
71'
A. Sanabria← G. Pandev
71'
F. Cassata← I. Falque
71'
E. Goldaniga
82'
L. Insigne← A. Younes
82'
E. Elmas← P. Zielinski
82'
D. Biraschi← P. Ghiglione
82'
A. Pinamonti← A. Favilli
87'
F. Ruiz← Allan

Possession

33%Genoa

Shots

8Genoa

Pass accuracy

47%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaNapoli
Overview
33%Possession67%
8Total Shots20
6Corners8
13Fouls6
Shots
8Total Shots20
3On Target9
4Off Target6
1Blocked5
6Inside Box11
2Outside Box9
Passing
33%Possession67%
327Total Passes663
257Accurate Passes588
79%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
8Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides0

Serie A: Genoa 1–2 Napoli

Napoli beat Genoa 2-1 in Serie A on July 8, 2020.

Goals: D. Mertens (45+1'), E. Goldaniga (49'), H. Lozano (66').

Napoli controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.