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Genoa vs Lecce — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lecce
Lecce
Gabriel 81' (OG)
A. Sanabria 7'
M. Mancosu 60'
7/19/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genoa46%
×Draw27%
Lecce26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.38
Lecce
0.97

Genoa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
Lecce
0.73

allows per match

Genoa
1.21
Lecce
1.57

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par
Lecce-0.20scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
74%
Genoa or Lecce
73%
Draw or Lecce
54%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
22%
Lecce wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
75%
Genoa 2+ goals
40%
Genoa 3+ goals
16%
Lecce 1+ goals
62%
Lecce 2+ goals
25%
Lecce 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
64%
Lecce (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Lecce defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lecce attack 0.73 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Genoa scores more
46%
level
27%
Lecce scores more
26%

Genoa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Giulio DonatiLecceLecce · D
7.7

Match Events

7'
A. Sanabria
14'
S. Sturaro← A. Barreca
15'
L. Lerager
32'
K. Babacar← G. Lapadula
35'
J. Petriccione
44'
R. Saponara
45+2'
M. MancosuMissed penalty
46'
A. Sanabria← A. Pinamonti
52'
F. Lucioni
53'
I. Falque← F. Jagiello
60'
M. Mancosu↳ C. Dell'Orco
64'
C. Romero
81'
GabrielOwn goal
83'
J. Petriccione← F. Falco
90'
A. Barreca← E. Goldaniga
90'
G. Pandev← A. Favilli

Possession

47%Genoa

Shots

10Genoa

Pass accuracy

50%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaLecce
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots18
3Corners8
12Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots18
3On Target1
5Off Target14
2Blocked3
5Inside Box11
5Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
456Total Passes483
387Accurate Passes411
85%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Genoa vs Lecce

Genoa beat Lecce 2-1 in Serie A on July 19, 2020.

Goals: A. Sanabria (7'), M. Mancosu (60'), Gabriel (81' o.g.).

Lecce controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.