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Genoa vs Inter — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Inter
Inter
R. Lukaku 90+3', 34'
A. Sanchez 83'
7/25/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 36Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genoa30%
×Draw26%
Inter44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.15
Inter
1.46

Inter creates 27% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
Inter
1.70

allows per match

Genoa
1.21
Inter
1.13

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par
Inter+0.27scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
56%
Genoa or Inter
74%
Draw or Inter
70%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
12%
Inter wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
68%
Genoa 2+ goals
32%
Genoa 3+ goals
11%
Inter 1+ goals
77%
Inter 2+ goals
43%
Inter 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
40%
Inter (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

Inter away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Inter defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Inter attack 1.70 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Genoa scores more
30%
level
26%
Inter scores more
44%

Inter at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Romelu LukakuInterInter · F
8.3

Match Events

16'
D. Criscito
34'
R. Lukaku↳ C. Biraghi
42'
R. Gagliardini
45+1'
C. Romero
59'
V. Behrami← L. Schone
64'
C. Eriksen← B. Valero
64'
L. Martinez← A. Sanchez
64'
M. Skriniar← D. D'Ambrosio
70'
A. Favilli← G. Pandev
74'
A. Ranocchia
76'
P. Ankersen← P. Ghiglione
83'
A. Sanchez↳ V. Moses
83'
C. Biraghi← A. Young
83'
V. Moses← A. Candreva
86'
S. Handanovic
90+3'
R. Lukaku↳ M. Brozovic

Possession

44%Genoa

Shots

9Genoa

Pass accuracy

48%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaInter
Overview
44%Possession56%
9Total Shots12
4Corners6
12Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots12
2On Target4
6Off Target3
1Blocked5
5Inside Box7
4Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
407Total Passes520
324Accurate Passes443
80%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Genoa vs Inter

Inter beat Genoa 3-0 in Serie A on July 25, 2020.

Goals: R. Lukaku (34', 90+3'), A. Sanchez (83').

Inter controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.