Genoa 0–4 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Genoa

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Inter

R. Gagliardini 80', 15'

I. Perišić 54'

M. Icardi 40' (pen)

4/3/2019

Serie A · Round 30Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genoa30%

×Draw26%

Inter44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenoaExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.46

Genoa

1.15

Inter

1.46

Inter creates 27% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

1.18

creates per match

1.70

1.21

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Genoa

1.18

Inter

1.70

allows per match

Genoa

1.21

Inter

1.13

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par

Inter+0.27scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Genoa or draw

56%

Genoa or Inter

74%

Draw or Inter

70%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+

12%

Inter wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals

68%

Genoa 2+ goals

32%

Genoa 3+ goals

11%

Inter 1+ goals

77%

Inter 2+ goals

43%

Inter 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)

40%

Inter (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

Inter away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Inter defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Inter attack 1.70 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Genoa scores more

30%

level

26%

Inter scores more

44%

Inter at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Gagliardini

Inter · M

9.1

Match Events

14'

Lukas Lerager

15'

R. Gagliardini↳ K. Asamoah

27'

Kwadwo Asamoah

35'

Ervin Zukanović

39'

Cristian Romero

40'

M. IcardiPenalty

41'

D. Biraschi← A. Sanabria

54'

I. Perišić↳ M. Icardi

65'

Daniel Bessa← S. Sturaro

66'

João Mário← M. Brozović

74'

Borja Valero← M. Politano

80'

K. Baldé← M. Icardi

80'

R. Gagliardini↳ I. Perišić

81'

L. Mazzitelli← I. Radovanović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenoaInter

Overview

23%Possession77%

8Total Shots14

1Corners6

10Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target7

3Off Target5

3Blocked2

6Inside Box11

2Outside Box3

Passing

23%Possession77%

254Total Passes883

191Accurate Passes818

75%Pass Accuracy93%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards–

1Offsides3

Serie A: Genoa 0–4 Inter

Inter beat Genoa 4-0 in Serie A on April 3, 2019.

Goals: R. Gagliardini (15', 80'), M. Icardi (40' pen), I. Perišić (54').

Inter controlled possession (77%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Luigi Ferraris in Genova.

Genoa vs Inter — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Genoa 0–4 Inter