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Genoa vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2018

Genoa
Genoa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
9/18/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 4Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Genoa40%
×Draw27%
Fiorentina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.31
Fiorentina
1.15

Genoa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
Fiorentina
1.11

allows per match

Genoa
1.19
Fiorentina
1.44

finishing

Genoa-0.05on par
Fiorentina+0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
67%
Genoa or Fiorentina
73%
Draw or Fiorentina
60%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
18%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
73%
Genoa 2+ goals
38%
Genoa 3+ goals
14%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
68%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
32%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
55%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 24 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Fiorentina defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fiorentina attack 1.11 + Genoa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Genoa scores more
40%
level
27%
Fiorentina scores more
33%

Genoa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Genoa 1–2 Fiorentina

Fiorentina beat Genoa 2-1 in Serie A on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.