Genoa 1–0 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Genoa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cagliari

Goran Pandev 43'

2/9/2020

Serie A · Round 23Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Genoa45%

×Draw27%

Cagliari29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenoaExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Genoa

1.40

Cagliari

1.06

Genoa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

1.14

creates per match

0.95

1.18

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Genoa

1.14

Cagliari

0.95

allows per match

Genoa

1.18

Cagliari

1.67

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Genoa-0.02on par

Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Genoa or draw

71%

Genoa or Cagliari

73%

Draw or Cagliari

55%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+

21%

Cagliari wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals

75%

Genoa 2+ goals

41%

Genoa 3+ goals

17%

Cagliari 1+ goals

65%

Cagliari 2+ goals

29%

Cagliari 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)

61%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 26 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.14 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Genoa defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Genoa scores more

45%

level

27%

Cagliari scores more

29%

Genoa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Mattia Perin

Genoa · G

7.8

Match Events

15'

Sebastian Walukiewicz← Paolo Faragò

16'

Fabrizio Cacciatore

21'

Andrea Pinamonti

24'

Federico Mattiello← Fabrizio Cacciatore

28'

Giovanni Simeone

39'

Goran Pandev← Paolo Ghiglione

43'

Goran Pandev↳ Stefano Sturaro

52'

Peter Ankersen← Lasse Schöne

54'

Radja Nainggolan

75'

Francesco Cassata← Andrea Pinamonti

77'

Gastón Pereiro← Ragnar Klavan

78'

79'

81'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenoaCagliari

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots10

4Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots10

5On Target4

3Off Target2

5Blocked4

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

386Total Passes429

306Accurate Passes357

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards6

2Offsides1