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Genoa vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atalanta
Atalanta
Domenico Criscito 90' (pen)
Duván Zapata 90'
Luis Muriel 64' (pen)
9/15/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 3Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genoa36%
×Draw27%
Atalanta37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.20
Atalanta
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
Atalanta
1.26

allows per match

Genoa
1.21
Atalanta
1.22

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par
Atalanta+0.05on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
63%
Genoa or Atalanta
73%
Draw or Atalanta
64%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
15%
Atalanta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
70%
Genoa 2+ goals
34%
Genoa 3+ goals
12%
Atalanta 1+ goals
71%
Atalanta 2+ goals
35%
Atalanta 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
49%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Atalanta defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Atalanta attack 1.26 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Genoa scores more
36%
level
27%
Atalanta scores more
37%

Atalanta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91
Duván ZapataAtalantaAtalanta · F
8.0

Match Events

31'
Cristian Romero
44'
Andrea Masiello
45'
Josip Iličić
48'
Hans Hateboer
56'
Marten de Roon← Mario Pašalić
60'
Luis Muriel← Josip Iličić
63'
Cristián Zapata
64'
Luis MurielPenalty
70'
Riccardo Saponara← Ivan Radovanović
82'
Goran Pandev← Antonio Barreca
82'
Peter Ankersen← Paolo Ghiglione
90'
Domenico CriscitoPenalty
90'
Goran Pandev
90'
Duván Zapata↳ Marten de Roon

Possession

51%Genoa

Shots

16Genoa

Pass accuracy

49%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaAtalanta
Overview
51%Possession49%
16Total Shots18
8Corners7
13Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots18
3On Target6
5Off Target7
8Blocked5
7Inside Box12
9Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
364Total Passes345
292Accurate Passes284
80%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Genoa vs Atalanta

Atalanta beat Genoa 2-1 in Serie A on September 15, 2019.

Goals: Luis Muriel (64' pen), Domenico Criscito (90' pen), Duván Zapata (90').

Genoa controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.