Genoa 3–1 Atalanta: Result & Stats | Serie A

Genoa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atalanta

K. Piątek 88'

D. Lazović 67'

Rafael Tolói 45+6' (OG)

D. Zapata 55' (pen)

12/22/2018

Serie A · Round 17Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genoa36%

×Draw27%

Atalanta37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenoaExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.23

Genoa

1.20

Atalanta

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.18

creates per match

1.26

1.21

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Genoa

1.18

Atalanta

1.26

allows per match

Genoa

1.21

Atalanta

1.22

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par

Atalanta+0.05on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Genoa or draw

63%

Genoa or Atalanta

73%

Draw or Atalanta

64%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+

15%

Atalanta wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals

70%

Genoa 2+ goals

34%

Genoa 3+ goals

12%

Atalanta 1+ goals

71%

Atalanta 2+ goals

35%

Atalanta 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)

49%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Atalanta defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Atalanta attack 1.26 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Genoa scores more

36%

level

27%

Atalanta scores more

37%

Atalanta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Piątek

Genoa · F

8.5

Match Events

3'

Cristian Romero

5'

M. Pessina← M. de Roon

12'

José Luis Palomino

45+6'

Rafael TolóiOwn goal

46'

E. Rolón← Miguel Veloso

54'

Domenico Criscito

55'

D. ZapataPenalty

63'

67'

71'

71'

75'

81'

81'

82'

Pedro Pereira← D. Lazović

88'

K. Piątek↳ Daniel Bessa

90'

Rafael Tolói

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenoaAtalanta

Overview

37%Possession63%

19Total Shots13

9Corners6

14Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots13

5On Target5

8Off Target7

6Blocked1

13Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

273Total Passes472

183Accurate Passes364

67%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards2

0Offsides2

Serie A: Genoa 3–1 Atalanta

Genoa beat Atalanta 3-1 in Serie A on December 22, 2018.

Goals: Rafael Tolói (45+6' o.g.), D. Zapata (55' pen), D. Lazović (67'), K. Piątek (88').

Atalanta controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Luigi Ferraris in Genova.

Genoa vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Genoa 3–1 Atalanta