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Genoa vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
AS Roma
AS Roma
Goran Pandev 45'
Edin Džeko 74'
Davide Biraschi 44' (OG)
Cengiz Ünder 5'
1/19/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 20Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Genoa36%
×Draw27%
AS Roma37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.27
AS Roma
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 24 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
AS Roma
1.36

allows per match

Genoa
1.21
AS Roma
1.37

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par
AS Roma-0.11scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
63%
Genoa or AS Roma
73%
Draw or AS Roma
64%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
16%
AS Roma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
72%
Genoa 2+ goals
36%
Genoa 3+ goals
14%
AS Roma 1+ goals
72%
AS Roma 2+ goals
37%
AS Roma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
49%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.37 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + AS Roma defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

AS Roma attack 1.36 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Genoa scores more
36%
level
27%
AS Roma scores more
37%

AS Roma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Lasse SchöneGenoaGenoa · M
8.3

Match Events

5'
Cengiz Ünder↳ Justin Kluivert
26'
Jordan Veretout
38'
Cristian Romero
44'
Davide BiraschiOwn goal
45'
Goran Pandev↳ Lasse Schöne
61'
Francesco Cassata
70'
Andrea Favilli← Francesco Cassata
73'
Edin Džeko
73'
Bryan Cristante← Jordan Veretout
74'
Edin Džeko↳ Lorenzo Pellegrini
81'
Pau López
84'
Yıldırım Mert Çetin← Davide Santon
86'
Kevin Agudelo← Antonio Sanabria
88'
Bruno Peres← Cengiz Ünder
90'
Ivan Radovanović← Stefano Sturaro

Possession

45%Genoa

Shots

9Genoa

Pass accuracy

47%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaAS
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots15
7Corners3
12Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots15
4On Target6
3Off Target7
2Blocked2
5Inside Box9
4Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
395Total Passes491
294Accurate Passes403
74%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Genoa 1 – 3 AS Roma

AS Roma beat Genoa 3-1 in Serie A on January 19, 2020.

Goals: Cengiz Ünder (5'), Davide Biraschi (44' o.g.), Goran Pandev (45'), Edin Džeko (74').

AS Roma controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.