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Genoa vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
C. Romero 90+1'
S. El Shaarawy 82'
5/5/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 35Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Genoa36%
×Draw27%
AS Roma37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.27
AS Roma
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 24 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
AS Roma
1.36

allows per match

Genoa
1.21
AS Roma
1.37

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par
AS Roma-0.11scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
63%
Genoa or AS Roma
73%
Draw or AS Roma
64%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
16%
AS Roma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
72%
Genoa 2+ goals
36%
Genoa 3+ goals
14%
AS Roma 1+ goals
72%
AS Roma 2+ goals
37%
AS Roma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
49%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.37 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + AS Roma defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

AS Roma attack 1.36 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Genoa scores more
36%
level
27%
AS Roma scores more
37%

AS Roma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
Miguel VelosoGenoaGenoa · M
8.0

Match Events

51'
Nicolò Zaniolo
66'
P. Schick← Lorenzo Pellegrini
71'
J. Kluivert← N. Zaniolo
73'
G. Pandev← G. Lapadula
82'
S. El Shaarawy↳ E. Džeko
83'
A. Sanabria← L. Lerager
84'
Justin Kluivert
89'
R. Karsdorp← A. Florenzi
90'
Esteban Rolón
90+3'
E. Rolón← Daniel Bessa
90+1'
C. Romero↳ Miguel Veloso

Possession

41%Genoa

Shots

18Genoa

Pass accuracy

47%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaAS
Overview
41%Possession59%
18Total Shots15
4Corners7
15Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots15
5On Target5
11Off Target7
2Blocked3
10Inside Box11
8Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
351Total Passes492
257Accurate Passes398
73%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
7Offsides1

Serie A: Genoa 1–1 AS Roma

Genoa and AS Roma drew 1-1 in Serie A on May 5, 2019.

Goals: S. El Shaarawy (82'), C. Romero (90+1').

AS Roma controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 18.

The match was played at Luigi Ferraris in Genova.