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Genoa vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Genoa
Genoa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
AC Milan
AC Milan
12/1/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 15Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Genoa32%
×Draw27%
AC Milan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.17
AC Milan
1.38

AC Milan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Genoa
1.19
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Genoa-0.05on par
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
58%
Genoa or AC Milan
73%
Draw or AC Milan
68%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
13%
AC Milan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
69%
Genoa 2+ goals
33%
Genoa 3+ goals
11%
AC Milan 1+ goals
75%
AC Milan 2+ goals
40%
AC Milan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
43%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 24 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Genoa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Genoa scores more
32%
level
27%
AC Milan scores more
42%

AC Milan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Genoa 0 – 3 AC Milan

AC Milan beat Genoa 3-0 in Serie A on December 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.