Genoa 1–2 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Genoa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

AC Milan

Lasse Schöne 41'

Franck Kessié 57' (pen)

Theo Hernández 51'

10/5/2019

Serie A · Round 7Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genoa33%

×Draw27%

AC Milan40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenoaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.34

Genoa

1.19

AC Milan

1.34

AC Milan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

1.18

creates per match

1.47

1.21

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Genoa

1.18

AC Milan

1.47

allows per match

Genoa

1.21

AC Milan

1.21

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par

AC Milan-0.08on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Genoa or draw

60%

Genoa or AC Milan

73%

Draw or AC Milan

67%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+

14%

AC Milan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals

70%

Genoa 2+ goals

33%

Genoa 3+ goals

12%

AC Milan 1+ goals

74%

AC Milan 2+ goals

39%

AC Milan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)

45%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + AC Milan defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

AC Milan attack 1.47 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Genoa scores more

33%

level

27%

AC Milan scores more

40%

AC Milan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Marko Pajač

Genoa · M

7.5

Match Events

11'

Davide Biraschi← Domenico Criscito

23'

41'

43'

45'

46'

Rafael Leão← Krzysztof Piątek

46'

Lucas Paquetá← Hakan Çalhanoğlu

51'

Theo Hernández

56'

Davide Biraschi

57'

Franck KessiéPenalty

62'

Lucas Biglia

64'

Lukas Lerager

67'

Lasse Schöne

73'

Andrea Favilli← Andrea Pinamonti

79'

Davide Calabria

79'

Davide Calabria

81'

Andrea Conti← Giacomo Bonaventura

84'

Lucas Paquetá

88'

Cristian Romero

88'

Goran Pandev← Lukas Lerager

90'

Lasse SchöneMissed penalty

90'

Samu Castillejo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenoaAC

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots9

7Corners0

23Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target6

6Off Target2

2Blocked1

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

420Total Passes420

351Accurate Passes353

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

23Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Genoa vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Genoa 2-1 in Serie A on October 5, 2019.

Goals: Lasse Schöne (41'), Theo Hernández (51'), Franck Kessié (57' pen).

Genoa controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.

Genoa vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Genoa vs AC Milan