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Genoa vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
Suso 83'
F. Borini 72'
1/21/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 20Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genoa33%
×Draw27%
AC Milan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.19
AC Milan
1.34

AC Milan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
AC Milan
1.47

allows per match

Genoa
1.21
AC Milan
1.21

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par
AC Milan-0.08on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
60%
Genoa or AC Milan
73%
Draw or AC Milan
67%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
14%
AC Milan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
70%
Genoa 2+ goals
33%
Genoa 3+ goals
12%
AC Milan 1+ goals
74%
AC Milan 2+ goals
39%
AC Milan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
45%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + AC Milan defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

AC Milan attack 1.47 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Genoa scores more
33%
level
27%
AC Milan scores more
40%

AC Milan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
G. DonnarummaAC MilanAC Milan · G
8.5

Match Events

8'
Fabio Borini
14'
A. Conti← C. Zapata
41'
Cristian Romero
45'
Patrick Cutrone
58'
Lucas Paquetá
58'
A. Favilli← G. Pandev
69'
Esteban Rolón
72'
F. Borini↳ A. Conti
76'
Pedro Pereira← D. Biraschi
77'
Ervin Zukanović
79'
J. Mauri← H. Çalhanoğlu
83'
Suso↳ P. Cutrone
84'
N. Dalmonte← Miguel Veloso
88'
Samu Castillejo← Suso

Possession

39%Genoa

Shots

18Genoa

Pass accuracy

48%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaAC
Overview
39%Possession61%
18Total Shots13
5Corners6
14Fouls16
Shots
18Total Shots13
7On Target6
7Off Target3
4Blocked4
10Inside Box5
8Outside Box8
Passing
39%Possession61%
320Total Passes502
253Accurate Passes433
79%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves8
Discipline
14Fouls16
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Serie A: Genoa 0–2 AC Milan

AC Milan beat Genoa 2-0 in Serie A on January 21, 2019.

Goals: F. Borini (72'), Suso (83').

AC Milan controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Luigi Ferraris in Genova.