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Genoa U20 vs Roma U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Genoa U20
Genoa U20
Preview
10:00
Roma U20
Roma U20
2/13/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 24
49%
Roma U20
model favours
29%22%49%

Roma U20 win just 36% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Genoa U2029%
×Draw22%
Roma U2049%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U20
1.41
Roma U20
1.90

Roma U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Genoa U20
1.58
Roma U20
2.26

allows per match

Genoa U20
1.55
Roma U20
1.24

finishing

Genoa U20+0.00on par
Roma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U20 ↓

Roma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Genoa U20 or draw
51%
Genoa U20 or Roma U20
78%
Draw or Roma U20
71%

Winning margin

Genoa U20 wins by 2+
13%
Roma U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Genoa U20 1+ goals
76%
Genoa U20 2+ goals
41%
Genoa U20 3+ goals
17%
Roma U20 1+ goals
85%
Roma U20 2+ goals
56%
Roma U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Genoa U20 (draw refunded)
37%
Roma U20 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Roma U20 away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U20 attack 1.58 + Roma U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Roma U20 attack 2.26 + Genoa U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Genoa U20 scores more
29%
level
22%
Roma U20 scores more
49%

Roma U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LDLLW
U20
LWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Genoa U20 vs Roma U20 — Match Preview

Genoa U20 face Roma U20 on February 13, 2027 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.